{"id":26968,"date":"2023-02-15T13:54:26","date_gmt":"2023-02-15T12:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/?p=26968"},"modified":"2024-03-24T14:00:19","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T13:00:19","slug":"maria-bugallo-maria-dolores-esteban-manuel-francisco-marey-perez-domingo-morales-2023-wildfire-prediction-using-zero-inflated-negative-binomial-mixed-models-application-to-spain-journal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/2023\/02\/15\/maria-bugallo-maria-dolores-esteban-manuel-francisco-marey-perez-domingo-morales-2023-wildfire-prediction-using-zero-inflated-negative-binomial-mixed-models-application-to-spain-journal\/","title":{"rendered":"Mar\u00eda Bugallo, Mar\u00eda Dolores Esteban, Manuel Francisco Marey-P\u00e9rez, &amp; Domingo Morales (2023). Wildfire prediction using zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models: Application to Spain. Journal of Environmental Management, 328, 116788."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Mar\u00eda Bugallo (Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Operativa, Universidad Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez de Elche), Mar\u00eda Dolores Esteban (Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Operativa, Universidad Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez de Elche), Manuel Francisco Marey-P\u00e9rez (Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Escuela Polit\u00e9cnica Superior de Ingenier\u00eda) and Domingo Morales (Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Operativa, Universidad Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez de Elche)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Abstract:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic wildfires make it necessary to have accurate predictive models on a country scale to organize firefighting resources. In Mediterranean countries, the number of wildfires is quite high but they are mainly concentrated around summer months. Because of seasonality, there are territories where the number of fires is zero in some months and is overdispersed in others. Zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models are adapted to this type of data because they can describe patterns that explain both number of fires and their non-occurrence and also provide useful prediction tools. In addition to model-based predictions, a parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating mean squared errors and constructing prediction intervals. The statistical methodology and developed software are applied to model and to predict number of wildfires in Spain between 2002 and 2015 by provinces and months.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mar\u00eda Bugallo (Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Operativa, Universidad Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez de Elche), Mar\u00eda Dolores Esteban (Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Operativa, Universidad Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez de Elche), Manuel Francisco Marey-P\u00e9rez (Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Escuela Polit\u00e9cnica Superior de Ingenier\u00eda) and Domingo Morales (Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Operativa, Universidad Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez de Elche)<br \/>\nAbstract:<br \/>\nWildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic [&#8230;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":11048,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[369888,75,7834],"tags":[724381,374547,374806],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26968"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11048"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26968"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26968\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cio.umh.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}